Romania’s 2024 Elections: A Fragmented Parliament and an Uncertain Future
Parliamentary Elections Redefine Romania’s Political Map
Following the shocking results of the first round of presidential elections, Romania’s parliamentary elections on December 1, 2024, marked a pivotal moment in its political landscape. The incumbent National Coalition for Romania, Social Democratic Party and National Liberal Party lost their majority with far-right parties (Alliance for the Union of Romanians, SOS Romania, and Party of Young People) making substantial gains at their expense.
Election Results: A Surge for Far-Right Parties
The Social Democratic Party (PSD) emerged as the election winner, gathering approximately 22.5% (-6.4pp vs. 2020 elections) of the vote. The National Liberal Party was the main loser of the elections with only 14.3% support (-10.9pp). Liberal centre-right Save Romania Union (USR) gathered 12.2% of the vote (-3.2pp). Far-right Alliance for the Union of Romania (AUR) had extremely successful campaign, being the runners-up with 18.2% of the vote, doubling their support compared to previous 2020 general elections. Furthermore, two relatively recently founded far-right parties, SOS Romania (SOS) and Party of Young People (POT) managed to surpass the 5% electoral threshold with 7.7% and 6.3%, respectively, despite polling lower before the elections. Finally, as it has been in previous elections, the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) secured their spot in the parliament with 6.4% of the vote (+0.7pp).
Coalition Building: Three Unstable Paths
The fragmented electoral outcome highlights the complexities of coalition building in Romania. A coalition government is inevitable, and compromises are required. The only two options currently open to the Romanian parties to form a coalition are a pro-European national government made up of the PSD, PNL, USR and UDMR, or a Eurosceptic administration including the PSD and extremist parties (AUR, SOS, POT). The difficulties with the first option rely in the fact that both PNL and USR have recently distanced themselves from PSD. Last week, the de facto leader of the PNL, Ilie Bolojan, ruled out governing with the PSD. Having been in coalition with the PSD for the past three years, many within the PNL blame its association with the Social Democrats for its poor showing in both, parliamentary election and in the first round of the presidential election, where the PNL candidate Nicolae Ciucă received an embarrassingly low 8% of the vote. At the same time, the overwhelming majority of reformist and progressive USR voters would strongly resist any collaboration with the Social Democrats, a party long perceived as fundamentally corrupt and as an obstacle to the urgent and essential reform of Romania’s bloated and inefficient state.
The second option at first glance seems not viable, as PSD, which currently seems more sensible compared to some previous incarnations, will be wary of working with the far-right parties. While there are some figures within the Social Democrats who would welcome collaboration with the extremists, the current leadership, including Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu and interim president of the party, Victor Negrescu, appear set against it.
Theoretically there is also a third option that could involve a coalition comprising the PSD, PNL, UDMR, and a group of MPs representing Romania’s ethnic minorities. However, the feasibility of this option hinges on the redistribution of votes from parties that failed to enter parliament. Preliminary calculations suggest such a coalition could secure a razor-thin majority in the lower house, potentially by just two or three seats, but would lack a majority in the senate.
Worst-Case Scenario: A Bulgarian stalemate
Worst outcome would be what has been dubbed as Bulgarian stalemate, where 7 parliamentary elections have been held in the past 3 years, without any success of forming a coalition thus far. An eighth election is looming in 2025. Romanians could also find themselves voting in a new parliamentary election in a few months’ time with the current PSD-PNL coalition continuing to govern until then, albeit with limited powers.
Presidential Run-Off: High Stakes for the Future
The upcoming second round of presidential elections could have major implications on how the parliamentary conundrum plays out. It is set to be a contest between Georgescu’s nationalist platform and Lasconi’s reformist agenda. The win of an ultranationalist, Moscow-friendly NATO critic Georgescu could increase the chances of some PSD MPs going rogue to form a government with the extremists. Such government would make Romania a pariah in the EU and NATO. At the same time, it could force PNL and USR to enter the coalition with Social Democrats to counter Georgescu’s agenda.
Economic Pressures Mounting Amid Political Turmoil
This political mess comes at a time when Romania faces pressing fiscal challenges, with a high budget deficit forecasted at 8% of GDP for 2024. Addressing this will require the incoming government to implement robust fiscal consolidation measures. These could involve reducing public expenditure, increasing tax revenues, or reforming public-sector policies—all of which have significant socio-economic implications. Additionally, Romania’s reliance on European Union funding for infrastructure and development underscores the importance of maintaining strong relations with Brussels. While the PSD’s pro-EU stance aligns with this imperative, the rise of nationalist rhetoric could complicate these relations, potentially jeopardizing access to critical funds and hampering economic progress.
